How Large Is the U.S. Debt to China?

The US is a debtor nation, and a substantial amount of US debt is held by China, an economic rival. This situation has raised concerns among many Americans, who see the debt held by China as a potential vulnerability for the US.

Claims that China “owns the US” or could leverage the US debt to China as a weapon are common, yet they often stem from misconceptions about the nature of U.S. debt. By examining who holds the U.S. debt and how the US borrows and manages its debt we can accurately assess these concerns.

How the U.S. Borrows

Most nations borrow money, but they don’t use the same process that individuals use. Countries don’t apply for loans. They use a process more similar to the way a large corporation borrows

The process starts with the U.S. Treasury, which issues bonds. These bonds are sold at auctions, and anyone can buy the bonds, including the Chinese government. As the U.S. Treasury explains, it “delivers securities to bidders who were awarded securities in a particular auction. In exchange, Treasury charges the accounts of those bidders for payment of the securities.” These Treasury bills are either issued at “par” or the bond’s face value, or a discount, to the winning bidders.

Each bond has a fixed maturity date. The owner collects the interest specified in the bond, and on the maturity date, the US government pays off the principal.

Who Owns the U.S. Debt?

America’s total outstanding debt is above the $33 trillion mark.^[1] The U.S. must pay interest on all of that debt. That interest rate changes over time and fluctuated between roughly 1.5% and 5%^[2] during the past decade. In 2023 alone, the U.S. spent $879 billion just to service the interest on the federal debt^[2]; this doesn’t even address the principal debt itself.

This can help us to understand why anyone or any nation would choose to loan money to the U.S. government. Over time, the interest payments can add up, making lending to the U.S. Treasury a potentially lucrative and highly secure investment.

Who or what owns the $33 trillion in U.S. government debt, though?

Anyone can buy U.S. Treasury bonds at an auction; if they win the auction, they get to own the bonds. Buyers can also purchase a Treasury bond secondhand through the bond market.

The majority of America’s debt is held in the U.S. U.S. Public holders collectively own $17.3 trillion worth of America’s debt^[2], making them the number-one U.S. debt holder. So, this ought to come as a relief to anyone who’s worried about China having a monopoly on America’s debt – it simply isn’t the case.

The second U.S. debt owners are Foreign Holders with $7.6 trillion worth of American debt. The third place belongs to Intragovernmental holders, with $7.2 trillion of U.S. debt.

Holders of US National Debt

Breakdown of Holders of US National Debt

How Large Is the U.S. Debt to China?

Thus, we can rest assured that the majority of America’s debt is, indeed, held domestically. Still, there are foreign holders of U.S. debt, and China is among them.

America’s top foreign debt holder is an Asian nation, but it’s not China. It’s Japan, with around $1.088 trillion. China comes second after Japan, with roughly $778 billion of U.S. debt.

US Treasurys Owned by China (2000-2023), in USD billions

China’s $778 billion puts it ahead of the U.K. ($669 billion), as well as other runners-up^[3] such as Switzerland, Belgium, France, and Taiwan. Pick any two of those countries, and China currently owns more U.S. debt than both of them combined.

We have to put things into perspective, though. Being number six on the list doesn’t make China a huge U.S. debt holder. Since China owns less than 4% of outstanding U.S. debt, it’s not accurate to say that America is somehow beholden to China.

Why Does China Buy US Debt?

China has a large trade surplus with the US: they sell more to the US than the US sells to them. That means they accumulate large numbers of dollars.

Chinese exporters earn dollars, but they need yuan to pay their local costs. If they went out and sold their dollars on the open market, they would push the value of the yuan up and the value of the dollar down.

The Chinese government doesn’t want that to happen. Their economy is built on exports, so they want to keep the yuan’s value low to keep their exports competitive. Export-dependent countries usually want to keep the value of their currency low.

So the People’s Bank of China steps in and buys the dollars from the exporters at a rate it sets. The exporters get their yuan, and China keeps the value of the yuan at an advantageous level.

That leaves the People’s Bank of China with a whole lot of dollars that it needs to keep somewhere safe and earn interest in the process. The only really practical way to do this – is to buy US bonds.

Can China “Call In” the US Debt?

Some people fear that China can effectively bankrupt the US by “calling in the debt”, or demanding immediate repayment. This fear is misplaced.

US bonds have fixed maturities: The U.S. Treasury emphasizes that these bonds are paid at par value upon the maturity date.

This means that the bonds, despite what some people might believe or fear, are not “callable”; the bondholder gets the agreed interest rate, and the principal is paid when the bond’s term ends.

It’s as simple as that. There’s no risk of China or anyone else “calling in the debt.” U.S. Treasury bondholders can’t do this. They can sell their bonds, but they can’t demand immediate repayment.

What Happens if China Sells the Debt?

Bond owners aren’t required to hold their Treasury bonds until the maturity date. These bonds can be sold on the secondary market. Anyone who owns a bond can sell it.

Bonds are sold at a discount to face value. Some of the interest has already been paid to the original owner, which makes the bond less valuable.

The bond market works on supply and demand. If someone wants to sell a lot of bonds at the same time, the price goes down.

That’s especially true when interest rates are rising. To sell an old bond with a low interest rate, you’d have to offer it at a huge discount. If you don’t, the buyer will simply buy a new bond with a higher interest rate instead.

If the Chinese dumped US bonds, they would lose a staggering sum of money. They might push the dollar’s value down, but that would make Chinese exports more expensive and hurt China more than the US.

In this scenario, China’s bondholders would simply be selling their U.S. Treasury bonds to another investor; there’s still no “calling in” of the debt. So, in short, there’s no threat here. This should help to quell any concerns that China’s U.S. debt holdings are a threat to U.S. security or that they somehow give China leverage over the U.S.

The Bottom Line

The US and China are strategic competitors, and many observers see the relationship between the two countries entirely through that lens. This leads to the belief that China buys US debt for a strategic reason and intends to “weaponize” the debt.

China and the US also have a deep and complex economic relationship that involves a great deal of interdependence. China buys US debt not because it’s a potential weapon but because they need a place to park their dollars without letting the value of the yuan rise.

America’s growing debt is cause for concern, but there’s no real reason to worry about a China “debt threat.” There is no way for China to “call in” the debt, and besides, the majority of the debt is owned by U.S. interests. So, while China does own a slice of America’s debt, it doesn’t pose a hazard to the nation’s security or its integrity.